Nancy’s pointless trip to Taiwan

China policies seem to be made by people who have been beaten in primary school. These people use language like “bullying”, “weaknesses”, and “standing up” and imagine someone, or something, intervening to stop them losing more lunch money (maybe an airline carrier group). America is too stupid to be playing at this game. Is Beijing?

We all know that Nancy Pelosi, who likely has only a couple of months left as speaker of the House, decided to spend her summer vacation stirring up the entire Pacific theater for the apparent purpose of satisfying her ego. Just days after RIMPAC 2022 concluded–China sure knew the U.S. had just wrapped up the largest live fire exercise of the year in the Pacific–bully Pelosi shoved Joe Biden into a mud puddle and said she was going to Taipei.

For those who are concerned about showing weakness, this is what you should know: Biden, who was ill with Covid and struggling to manage inflation while digging a deeper hole in Ukraine, was too weak for his party members to say he would stay out of trouble.

There wasn’t any real reason to travel to Taiwan this week. No crisis was brewing. There wasn’t any event that required anyone to visit Taiwan this week. The Chinese lit a fire under this mess, which was made worse by Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi.

Remember the tips your mother gave you about bullies? Remember the advice your mom gave you about bullies? “Ignore them, they’ll disappear.” China imagines listening to her mother on this issue and declaring that Nancy was heading to Taipei. Taipei and Nancy are not particularly significant to the soon-to be greatest economy in world so we will ignore both of them. Beijing might respond by saying, “We hope Nancy chokes upon her dinner,” and then leave it at that.

Nancy the Bully thought she was fighting Beijing the Bully. But, everyone soon joined the fray. So you have the New York Times–no stranger to losing its lunch money–saying that “Bullies often seek tests of strengths to probe for signs of weakness. They always interpret attempts at reconciliation as proof of capitulation.

The Times even quotes Sun Tzu (note to China watchers: if a pundit quotes Sun Tzu, duck; some B.S. You are on your way. “If Beijing,” the Times continued, “had gotten its way over something as seemingly minor as Pelosi’s visit, it would not have been merely a symbolic victory in a diplomatic sideshow. This would have altered the rules. It would not have prevented a diplomatic crisis. Instead, it would have precipitated a strategic catastrophe: further isolation of an American ally democratic and important economic partner, as a prelude for surrender, war, or both. “

There you go. We just barely avoided a strategic disaster, a game-changer, a mere preclude to surrender or war… or both! Bravo! Nancy was able to land the plane in Taipei safely.

It is now that we need to take things seriously. China will not go to war against Taiwan. After all the smoke clears and overflights are tallied, China did only one substantive thing to punish Taiwan: it halted Taiwanese snack imports (including biscuits and pastries ahead of mooncake season) just before Pelosi’s arrival. This does not appear, Sun Tzu’s warning aside, to be akin either war or surrender.

It really doesn’t matter. It’s like Nancy Pelosi’s trip.

Do we have to go through all of Taiwan’s relations with China? Between 1991 and March 2020, Taiwan’s investment in China totaled $188.5 billion, more than China’s investment in the United States. In 2019, the value of cross-strait trade was $149.2 billion. China applied last September to join the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Taiwan also applied for membership a week later.

China has been Taiwan’s biggest trading partner. It has been a great success for both countries. As Deng Xiaoping said of this type of modus vivendi, “Who cares what color a cat is as long as it catches mice?” China might one day seek to buy Taiwan, but until then, what incentive would it have to drop bombs on one of its best customers? Pelosi even suggested that Taiwan should attend the Beijing Olympics.

An attack against Taiwan could cause Japan and South Korea, who are likely to be scared by it, to cross the nuclear threshold. China will be facing even more formidable enemies. A serious attack against Taiwan’s economy would cause severe damage, something Xi will no doubt consider part of his prize. An attack on Taiwan could also lead to Chinese massacring Chinese people, who share a common language and have many thousand years of cultural heritage.

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Precovid: Chinese travelers made 2. 68 million visits a year to Taiwan, many of which were to visit relatives. Student exchanges between Taiwan and China began in 2011, with some 25,000 mainland kids studying in Taiwan. Even a “successful” attack would be near-political-suicide for Xi. China would be economically and politically marginalized if it invaded Taiwan. An unsuccessful attack might lead to Taiwanese independence declarations that China is not able to stop.

Caution does not equal appeasement. Each diplomatic maneuver is not an all-out effort to gain strength. Tiananmen was 33 years and a major change or two of governments ago. Hong Kong, which was colonized by Britain after being taken from China, was returned to the Chinese under Beijing. The same happened for Macao as well as the Portuguese. China was defeated in Vietnam and Korea by the United States, but that didn’t spill over to Taiwan. China did not invade Taiwan and went nuclear.

Strength and weakness are not dependent on one visit from someone so close to her term as Nancy Pelosi. China and Taiwan do not have this type of relationship, although bullies will continue to be bullies. Their complex diplomatic relationship is overshadowed in large amounts of cross-straits trade, investment and travel. They grow closer to each other in every area, except the political and martial. Many of their differences are encouraged by the U.S., along with an industry of China experts who profit like dung beetles from the possibility of conflict.