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It’s an important milestone that both countries celebrate.
The Chinese government responded muted to the recent United Nations declaration that India, Beijing’s principal economic and military competitor in the Indo-Pacific region — has the potential to overtake China as the world’s largest populous country next year. This title has been held by China for many centuries.
India has, however, responded cautiously to the developments and analysts from across the region agreed that it merits careful consideration for both its short-term and long-term consequences for the global pecking system.
While India’s poverty and overpopulation will continue to be major problems, it is poised to climb to No. India is poised to surpass China as the No. 1 country in an important symbolic category, which could significantly boost New Delhi’s standing on the international stage.
” There is something very powerful about India being the most populous nation in the world,” stated Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington.
” India’s ability to outperform China on all fronts is important,” Kugelman stated in an interview after the U.N. Population Announcement, which took place in conjunction with World Population Day.
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” Talking about India becoming more populous than China is a sign of India’s power and geostrategic importance, as well as its place in the world, where it long sought to play a greater role, is something we should be doing,” he stated.
This sentiment has been echoed by some Indians over the last month with The Times of India (one of New Delhi’s most influential papers), alerting readers to the fact that India is poised to regain a proud point China enjoyed so long.
“In a few months, India’s population will surpass China’s and mark a historic shift last seen 300 years ago,” the paper stated, claiming more than “63,000 children are born in India every day while China has less than half that, 29,000,” and that “China’s population shrunk for the first time in 60 years in 2022 while India’s will continue to grow for the next 40.”
The Press Trust of India quoted John Wilmoth, a U.N. official on population who said that India’s rise as the world’s most populous country could help “strengthen New Delhi’s struggle to become a permanent member of U.N. Security Council.”
The U.N. World population Prospects 2022 Report, which was released last month, stated that 8 billion people will be living in the world by November and that India would surpass China in some time next year.
The U.S. Census Bureau puts the U.S. population at roughly 337 million. The U.N. report characterized India and China as far above that, with about 1.4 billion apiece in 2022 – numbers that triggered debate among population data scholars, due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.
The country’s population over time tells a story about where the world’s challenges and opportunities are. In 2000, for example, Nigeria was the only African nation in the world’s top 10 by population – at No. 10. By 2050, U.N demographers forecast, Nigeria will be third in the world, surpassing the U.S., with Congo and Ethiopia also making the top 10.
Russia and Japan, both securely in the top ten in 2000, fall out of the list altogether by 2050, if current trends hold.
Indian Census figures place India’s population as 1. 21 billion in 2011, according to Reuters, which noted the census gets conducted every 10 years, but that New Delhi deferred the 2021 count due to the pandemic.
The July U.N. Report acknowledged that the pandemic had affected “all components of population changes, including fertility and mortality, as well as migration .”
But the report cited India among countries projected to experience substantial population growth over the coming two decades, while stating bluntly that “China is expected to experience an absolute decline in its population as early as 2023.”
The One Child effect
Analysts say the reasons for the drop in China is multifold, but the most prominent is tied to the “One Child” family policy that Beijing began enforcing to restrain population growth when China was a far poorer nation back in 1980. In response to growing concerns about declining birth rates and population growth, the government began relaxing the policy. Beijing allowed two children in 2016 while three were permitted in 2021..
However, it is still to be determined how this will affect the overall situation in the long-term. Experts and media from China have been focusing intensely on the consequences of a declining population.
Some have attributed China’s history of rapid population growth to its rise as an economic power. This suggests that the power might be diminished if there is a decline in population.
” The overall arrangement of economic and social development must be adjusted in order to adapt to this new pattern of population increase,” Lu Jiehua (a professor of sociology from Peking University) told China’s Global Times newspaper following the U.N. report.
” China relied for a long period on the demographic dividend in order to fuel economic growth. “In the future, the population dividend could gradually decrease or even go into debt.” Lu said. To fully increase the quality of the people and to create economic growth , it is important that we look at other areas than the demographic dividend.
A separate Global Times article written by Hu Weijia stated that India’s population growth should, “in theory,” propel its economic growth in the same manner as China’s demographic dividends drove China’s economic boom .”
“Some observers closely monitor whether India surpasses China in population, because they view the replacement as an opportunity for India to challenge China’s factory model,” said the article.
It continued to say that, while India’s pharmaceutical and software sectors are highly developed in recent years, India has not been able to create a manufacturing industry capable of accommodating a large number of young people into good-paying jobs.
World Bank data show that India is continuing to rise in the global GDP rankings but still has some way to go to challenge China and the United States.
India’s GDP was ranked 6th in 2021, just above France, which has a population of just 65 million people — roughly 20 times fewer than India’s 1.4 billion.
While Mr. Kugelman stated that there was powerful symbolism in India’s rise to the top of the world’s population, he said that it would also “amplify some longstanding and at this time unsurmountable problems .”
“India has experienced persistent poverty and high unemployment because of its population growth,” he stated. It has stopped New Delhi from capitalizing upon its demographic dividend. In other words, India has been unable to take advantage of the many young people it has. This is because they don’t have enough jobs, and too few of them are able to obtain jobs that will contribute to meaningful economic growth .”
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