Reinforcing Failure in Ukraine

In an open letter entitled “U.S. must arm Ukraine now, before it’s too late” 20 notable American advocates for the war against Russia in Ukraine argue that the conflict has reached a decisive moment. To win, the authors insist, Ukrainian forces need an abundance of new equipment, including the constant resupply of ammunition and spare parts for artillery platforms, short- and medium-range air defense systems to counter Russian air and missile strikes, and ATACMS munitions fired by HIMARS with the 300km range necessary to strike Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine or Crimea.

The initial flow of ammunition and equipment from Washington’s European Allies to Ukraine has now dwindled to a trickle. Daniel Fiott, a European defense analyst , said that Ukraine needs “hardware, not hot air” and is causing refugee fatigue across Europe.

Germans, Hungarians and others lost patience with unrelenting refugee influx to Europe a while back. But now it seems that the Poles have reached the point of no return. Polish households confront serious economic headwinds. Poland has one of Europe’s highest inflation rates–15.6 percent in July–caused in part by the war in Ukraine. It is easy to see huge public pressure being applied to Berlin, Warsaw and Prague to stop the conflict in Ukraine.

The hard truth is that the introduction of new weapons systems will not change the strategic outcomes in Ukraine. Even if NATO’s European members, together with Washington, D.C., provided Ukrainian troops with a new avalanche of weapons, and it arrived at the front instead of disappearing into the black hole of Ukrainian corruption, the training and tactical leadership required to conduct complex offensive operations does not exist inside Ukraine’s 700,000-man army. HTML2_ In addition to the obvious failure to see that Moscow might react by increasing the conflict, it is also not apparent. Russia, unlike Ukraine, isn’t currently mobilize for larger wars, although it might do so soon.

American civilian and military leaders regularly ignore history and the lessons it teaches. They ignored, most importantly, the importance of uniformed human capital that often constitutes victory margins in war.

On June 22, 1941, the German Wehrmacht launched its invasion of Russia with more horses than tanks. For the most part, the German ground forces were composed of Great War-style infantry divisions dependent on horse-draw logistics and artillery. While the German soldiers were unquestionably outstanding, only a small number were equipped with all of the necessary firepower, mobility and armored protection to fight in Eastern Europe.

Of the millions of German soldiers who marched into Russia, roughly 450,000 to 500,000 were assigned to Germany’s mobile armored force, the offensive striking power that rapidly crushed its Polish, British, Dutch, Belgian, and French opponents. They were among the most skilled soldiers, and had the largest share of modern equipment.

It took four years, from 1939 to 1943, to wear down this core element to the point where large-scale German offensives were no longer possible. The critical data point to remember is that 55,000 German officers had been killed in action by October.

These German officers were some of the most skilled and experienced in the army. These officers performed brilliant maneuvers to bring the Wehrmacht, which was ill equipped, to Moscow. This happened in a three-front war: Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. The offensives culminated at El Alamein and Kursk.

A similar problem plagued the Luftwaffe. The Luftwaffe was unable to replace its top pilots with modern fighter jets from Germany’s industry. However, the German Army would be able to replace its most senior officers.

Admiral Isoroku Yomoto, who was a commander of the Japanese Navy’s strike force at Pearl Harbor, understood how important it is to have uniformed officers. Yamamoto not only wanted to strike and annihilate the U.S. fleet at Pearl Harbor but also wanted to seize the Hawaiian Islands, declaring, “To defeat the U.S. Navy we must kill its officers.” Yamamoto understood how long it took to train and prepare officers for the Navy. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor enabled the U.S. to eliminate the Imperial Japanese Armed Forces at Sea and Air.

Human capital is essential for both war and peace. Sadly, Washington places almost no value on it, eagerly lowering standards of admission for soldiers and officers. If this attitude persists, and it probably will, relaxed standards will catch up with America’s military when our forces finally confront a capable opposing force in battle.

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John Adams, second president of the United States, observed, “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” Adams is still right.

Ukraine’s war against Russia has reached a crucial point. It is time to end it. The letter’s authors want to increase failure. The authors of the letter demand a badly designed strategy for Ukraine, which will allow Ukraine to become a small and landlocked country between the Dnieper River in Poland and its Polish border. These are results of misguided policies originating in the 1990s under the Clinton administration, which drove Russia into political isolation from Europe and forged Moscow’s alliance with Beijing.

Expanding NATO’s reach to Russia was not necessary, and it has been disastrous for Europe. As long as the conflict with Russia continues, the greater the likelihood that Ukraine’s society and army are going to be devastated. It is possible to maintain neutrality in Ukraine using the Austrian model. If Washington insists on perpetuating Ukraine’s war with Russia, the neutrality option will vanish, NATO’s fragile “coalition of the willing” will collapse, and Ukraine will become the new “sick man of Europe” and remain a catalyst for future conflict.