Fears of a U.S. terrorist strike are growing

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The strike against Ayman al-Zawahri, al Qaeda leader, proved that U.S. forces are capable of carrying out intelligence and military missions in Afghanistan even if American troops have left the country.

Under the surface, though, anti-terrorism experts and foreign policy analysts claim that the attack on al-Zawahri’s safehouse in Kabul exposed deeper, long-term issues for the U.S. and its seemingly endless fight against extremist Islamic extremism. The clear links between al Qaeda and the Taliban are evident, and experts say they will only get stronger. With the Taliban establishing their control and the U.S. not being able to provide a steady counterbalance, these problems could be the most serious.

The Pentagon’s and U.S. intelligence communities may have limited ability to monitor and stop the spread of terrorist networks to Afghanistan in the coming years. Analysts believe that the al-Zawahri case was a rare one. After evading a worldwide manhunt for over two decades, the al Qaeda leader was finally captured. His tradecraft sloppiness included a habit of spending his time on his balcony with clear views of everyone walking below. After U.S. intelligence was able to identify him, he became a target of long-range U.S. airstrikes from Afghanistan.

More complex missions are still difficult to plan from “over-the-horizon,” and would prove extremely difficult in Afghanistan for many logistical as well as geopolitical reasons.

” The strike against al-Zawahri was really both the best and worst of times,” stated Nathan Sales, former president Trump’s counterterrorism coordinator at the State Department. It shows the U.S. can still take terror suspects from the battlefield in rare cases. It shows that al Qaeda continues to cooperate with the Taliban to the extent that al Qaeda’s top honcho was content to live in a safehouse run by the Taliban right in the center of capital .

If this collaboration leads to U.S. interest abroad threats or the American homeland, then a larger military mission could face severe obstacles.

“It’d be more difficult, both operationally, and diplomatically to execute an Abbottabad raid-type or a Baghdadi raid-type operation,” Mr. Sales said. Sales said. Because we had substantial U.S. troops in Afghanistan, we could go to Abbottabad. Because we had substantial troops in Syria and Iraq , we could go to Baghdadi.

Other than their political differences, President Trump and Vice President Biden refused to change their positions that U.S. troops should leave Afghanistan. Despite pleas by top American generals for a smaller but still powerful force to support the U.S-backed government at Kabul, Mr. Trump was not able to compromise.

Mr. Trump began direct diplomatic negotiations to reach an agreement with Taliban, despite fierce criticisms from his party. He did this without seeking approval from Kabul’s government. Biden continued to push for the withdrawal and set a timetable, despite criticisms that the Taliban weren’t keeping up the agreement and U.S. Military advisers warning him privately that the Afghan government would collapse quickly without American and Western support.

Both the United States and China have tried to shift America’s focus, both militarily and politically, towards Asia. China is a growing military and economic power. But some claim that Afghanistan has made that difficult. Instead, two decades later, after the 9 /11 terrorist attacks, America finds itself forced at least to watch Afghanistan, which has the potential to become the center and refuge for international Islamic extremism groups.

” The overall strategic picture that emerged from the enduring al Qaeda/Taliban alliance is bad news to the U.S. government which has wanted to shift away from fighting terrorism towards strategic competition with China or Russia,” Asfandyar mir, a senior specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Asia Center said in a forum. The U.S. government faces formidable terrorist enemies who can exploit grievances. Alliances. State support. This will allow them to recover their losses and remain in the fight. America cannot afford to ignore its terrorist enemies

As a matter of tactical concern, there are still many unanswered questions regarding the U.S.’ ability to prevent the rise of extremist forces from Afghanistan.

The Biden administration, in particular, has not been able to find new countries that are willing to house counterterrorism assets from the United States for the long-term. This would make any possible ground force missions more difficult and dangerous.

Potential hosts in the region have been under intense pressure from Russia and China to refuse U.S. requests. overtures.

Even Pakistan which shares a complex history of anti-terrorism issues with the U.S. for the past two decades, has been treading a delicate line. Taliban officials accused Islamabad last month of permitting U.S. drones into Pakistani airspace to carry out missions in Afghanistan. This included the attack on al-Zawahri.

Pakistani officials refuted the allegations.

” In the absence of evidence, such conjectural allegations are deeply regrettable and violate the norms of responsible diplomacy,” Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Voice of America.

History is repeating itself

Mr. Ahmad publicly rebuked the Taliban for not living up to an agreement with Trump in early 2020,, in particular, to stop terrorists from having free rein within the country, as occurred during the Taliban’s first regime, in the wake of the 9 /11 attack, which was conceived by bin Laden and al-Zawahri, top al Qaeda figures based in Afghanistan.

“We ask the Afghan interim authorities for the fulfilment of the international commitments by Afghanistan to not allow terrorist use of their territory against any country,” he stated.

The deal required the Taliban not to allow terrorist groups to continue to use Afghanistan for their operations. It also prohibited them from waging war against the U.S. forces and allies as it was being executed. The U.S. agreed to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan in exchange.

The Taliban gave little indication that it planned to continue with this process. Despite the Taliban’s claims to the contrary, reports from the Pentagon and the United Nations consistently stated that al Qaeda was still present in Afghanistan despite months of American military withdrawal. Al-Zawahiri’s Kabul-based comfortable life was more evidence that the Taliban are either unwilling or incapable to rid Afghanistan of terrorists.

Another rival to al Qaeda has established its own base in Afghanistan thanks to a ruthless branch of Islamic State.

By executing the withdrawal in such an chaotic manner with the entire world watching, America’s Biden administration made America less secure, critics claim.

” We are less likely to get attacked than New York City was 20 a few years back, and we’re much more vulnerable to being attacked by [Afghanistan] now than we were one year ago,” ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated during an appearance on Cats Roundtable radio.

As the former secretary of state for President Trump, Mr. Pompeo played a central role in U.S. negotiations against the Taliban. However, Mr. Trump’s advisors claim that they wouldn’t have pulled out as fast as Mr. Biden in the face clear evidence of the Taliban leadership failing to fulfill their promises or without an even clearer plan on how the U.S. would counter-terrorism in this theater.

The Biden administration claims that the U.S. already reaps strategic benefits from Afghanistan’s pullout. This includes being able focus on Russia-Ukraine without distractions for one, and the recent U.S. Intelligence Community assessment offering a more optimistic view of the situation in Afghanistan after the American troop withdrawal.

The joint assessment by the U.S. agencies concluded that al Qaeda has so far not been able reconstitute its network in the country, and that there are only a few of the terror group’s former members. This was reported by the New York Times last month.

But with no American troops present in Afghanistan, and a Taliban-run government that has proven unreliable to date, military officials worry that the country will collapse to the point where America must return.

Recently, when asked if U.S. troops might need to return to Afghanistan, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie appeared to open that possibility.

” I know that it is in America’s best interests to prevent these extremist centers from growing and expanding in Afghanistan. “And I think that under the current Taliban regime this’s likely to happen,” stated Gen. McKenzie who was the commander of U.S. Central Command during U.S. withdrawal.

” The last time that I looked at intelligence was in the past,” General McKenzie said to Fox News Sunday. It is the same as everyone else, I follow it in the newspaper and from other sources. However, I don’t see any reason to doubt that Afghanistan is under increasing threat and that it will only get worse .”

Biden officials claim that the U.S. has the capability to respond to the threat. The officials stress that al-Zawahri’s strike shows that, despite having limited military capabilities, the U.S. can still eliminate terrorist leaders when needed.

“Ask al Qaeda members how secure they feel in Afghanistan now,” John Kirby, White House spokesperson for national security told reporters following last month’s al-Zawahri strike.

” “I believe we proved that it’s not a safe haven, and it’s not going to be moving forward,” he stated.