JUNE DELIVERS DECENT JOBS REPORT, WHICH MEANS THE FED IS GOING TO TRY HARDER TO DESTROY THOSE JOBS TO FIGHT INFLATION… CNBC HEADLINE AT 9: 06 AM… Dow futures slide 200 points after strong jobs report likely to keep Fed in hiking mode
Stock futures fell Friday after the July jobs report was much better than expected, showing a strong labor market that will likely mean more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 222 points or 0.68%. S&P 500 futures lost 1. 05% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.43%.
The labor market added 528,000 jobs in July, easily beating a Dow Jones estimate of a 258,000 increase. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% below its 3.6% estimate. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5%, below the estimate of 3.6%. Wage growth was 0.5% higher than expected and 5.2% more than last year, indicating that inflation remains a concern.
FLASHBACK… JUNE 13… WSJ: Higher Unemployment Rate Looms as the Fed Fights Inflation
Federal Reserve officials are beginning to signal that higher unemployment rates might be a necessary consequence of their efforts to damp inflation by raising interest rates.
This is a marked change from last year’s policies that provided economic stimuli to spur the recovery of the labor market from the devastating effects of the pandemic. […] “There will be bumps in the road,” Loretta Mester, President of Cleveland Fed said earlier this month. “The unemployment rate may temporarily rise above its long-run levels,” she stated. “This will be painful, but so is high inflation.”
DAILY RUNDOWN EXCLUSIVE… EARLY ANALYSIS OF JUNE JOBS NUMBERS FROM EJ ANTONI…
Despite a blockbuster headline number, the labor market data continues to be a mixed bag. In July, the labor force participation rate dropped again. This artificially pushed down the unemployment numbers. The household survey added 179k jobs, vs. the 528k added in the establishment survey. According to the household survey, employment peaked in March. It hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. Multiple job holders also rose by almost 100k and despite strong nominal wage growth, inflation is running even hotter, meaning people are working more for less in terms of real goods and services. Lastly, another key factor behind the divergence between the household and establishment survey is the number of unincorporated self-employed workers, which fell 279k in July. The establishment survey captures a trend in people working for other companies and leaving their self-employed jobs. However, the household survey does not show this. The establishment survey also counts multiple job holders. Adjusting for these two factors, the number of jobs added might be closer to 150k, not half a million. There are many pitfalls in the labor market and it isn’t as strong as we think.
JASON FURMAN : I am puzzled at the fall of labor force participation. Peaked at 62.4% in March & has fallen nearly continuously since-despite tons of job openings, lots of jobs added, dwindling cash balances, mostly improving COVID, recession talk scaring people into accepting jobs, etc. (GRAPH)
BLACK MALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DROPS… BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP… DANIEL ZHAO, GLASSDOOR: The decline in labor force participation was notably large for Black men, age 20+ where the labor force participation rate has plummeted from 68.9 percent in May to 67.3 percent in July
Similarly, the Black unemployment rate rose to 6 percent in July, while the unemployment rate dropped for white, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian workers. If the labor market slows, this is not a trend that you should be following.
EMPLOYMENT AMONG WOMEN WENT UP… BUT MEN WENT DOWN… “If you look at just the employment numbers… you can see women driving a lot of that June to July trend there — 349,000 more people employed on the women’s side of things,” @bcheungz says on nonfarm payroll growth. “Men, however, actually contracting by about 170,000.” (VIDEO)
BREAKING OVERNIGHT: SINEMA NOW ONBOARD WITH TAX & SPENDING PACKAGE… SHE FOUGHT TO PRESERVE REVILED CARRIED INTEREST LOOPHOLE… WSJ: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Wins Tax Changes to Democrats’ Climate Bill
WASHINGTON–Democrats revised their climate and healthcare package, striking a deal with centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D., Ariz.) to scale back some tax provisions in the plan and add in a new tax on stock buybacks to try to win her support. Ms. Sinema made a short statement on Thursday night. She said that she will continue with the legislation following a Senate non-partisan parlamentararian’s review. While Ms. Sinema didn’t outright back the plan, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said in his own statement that he believed the changes would keep the bill on track in the 50-50 Senate, in the face of united Republican opposition. I am happy to announce that we reached an agreement regarding the Inflation Reduction Act, which I believe will be supported by the whole Senate Democratic Conference,” Schumer stated.
Under the changes negotiated with Ms. Sinema, Democrats will pare back elements of a 15% minimum tax on large, profitable corporations and drop a proposed tax increase on carried-interest income, according to people familiar with the agreement. Democrats will add a 1% tax on stock buybacks to the legislation, as the party aims to still reduce the deficit by about $300 billion in the legislation, according to these people.
REPUBLICANS HAMMER FBI’S WRAY… ‘Identify Patriotic Americans As Suspects’: Sen. Ted Cruz Confronts Wray On Project Veritas Leak (VIDEO)
Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz confronted FBI Director Christopher Wray about a leak of alleged FBI material by the conservative activist group, Project Veritas, at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Thursday.
Cruz attempted to argue that the FBI is a repeat target of conservatives. He pointed out a copy that Project Veritas had obtained from the FBI that listed the Betsy Ross and Gonzales Battle Flags as “indicatives of militia violent extremism
“Director Wray,” Cruz said. This is absurd. “This makes no sense. But, I will tell you that when we put out intelligence products, including ones that reference symbols which we do across a wide variety of context, we usually make great pains to put caveats and warnings in the document that make clear that a symbol alone is not considered evidence of violent extremism.”
FBI OFFICIAL WENT FROM OVERSEEING WHITMER ‘FEDNAPPING’ TO OVERSEEING DC JAN 6 CASES… FBI Director Admits Agent Whose Office Ran Botched Whitmer Kidnapping Case Got A Promotion (VIDEO)
FBI Director Christopher Wray indicated that an agent who headed the agency’s Detroit Field Office when FBI operatives allegedly entrapped people into planning to kidnap Michigan’s governor is currently in charge of the D.C. Field Office.
Steven M.] D’Antuono, the special agent responsible for the… Detroit Field Office and now is the assistant director of the Washington Field Office,” Wray explained to Ted Cruz of Texas during Thursday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. Cruz called the move “astonishing.”
A judge acquitted two men and declared a mistrial for two others in April after their October 2020 arrests for allegedly plotting to kidnap Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and their defense claiming that the FBI encouraged and conceived the plot. D’Antuono took charge of the FBI’s Detroit Field Office in 2019 and was announced as the D.C. Field Office’s leader just days after the arrests.
FLASHBACK… MARCH 8… NYT REPORTER: ‘THERE WERE A TON OF FBI INFORMANTS’ IN JAN 6 CROWD… Hidden Video Captures NYT Reporter Calling Coverage About Jan 6 ‘Overblown.’ Fake Trauma, Fake News, Full ‘Of FBI Informants’ (VIDEO)
REAL NY TIMES HEADLINE… NYT: G.O.P. The Governors Bus Migrants to the East Coast HTML3_ A political strategy by Arizona and Texas to alleviate the crisis caused by high levels of immigration at the border has begun to make a difference in Washington. Hundreds of migrants are arriving each week on free buses that the governors provide. This is putting pressure on Washington’s capacity to offer emergency housing and food.
With no money or family to accept them, migrants have overwhelmed immigrant nonprofits, and other volunteer organizations, leaving many homeless shelters, and on benches. On a recent morning, five buses brought young people and their families to the Capitol.
Since April, Texas has delivered more than 6,200 migrants to the nation’s capital, with Arizona dispatching an additional 1,000 since May. Washington’s Democratic mayor Muriel E.Bowser asked the Defense Department for the National Guard to be sent in. Organizations that had been helping migrants in need of city assistance have become furious at the request.
NEW THIS AM… AP: China halts climate, military ties over Pelosi Taiwan visit
BEIJING (AP) — China on Friday said it is canceling or suspending dialogue with the United States on a range of issues from climate change to military relations and anti-drug efforts in retaliation for a visit this week to Taiwan by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
These measures are part of a series of promised steps to punish Washington for permitting the U.S. to visit the territory it considers its own. They will be annexed if necessary. China threatened military drills in six areas just offshore Taiwan’s coastlines on Thursday. It says they will continue through Sunday.
WHY HAS BIDEN BEEN MORE TOUGH ON RUSSIA THAN CHINA … ‘That’s A Little Bit Insulting’: Kirby Pushes Back Against Doocy Suggesting Biden Is Weak On China (VIDEO)
Doocy asked Kirby, the White House coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, why the president has been tougher on Russia than China at Thursday’s White House press briefing.
I don’t think the question you asked is valid, Peter,” Kirby said. “Well, when Russia became aggressive towards Ukraine, the president would go out every few days and tell [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that he wouldn’t do it. And now China’s getting aggressive toward Taiwan. We’re not getting anything like that from him,” Doocy responded. I disagree. We’ve been here almost a whole week now, Peter. Talking about our concerns over what China was planning to do, and we released declassified information we had seen, which showed what the Chinese strategy was going to be,” Kirby stated. Look, I was at another podium not too long ago, and in the same manner we reacted there, now we are reacting today by being transparent and honest about what’s happening and calling it out as it is. Today, Kirby spoke about how we will preserve a free Indo-Pacific. Your question .”
Doocy asked the reason the president doesn’t have a scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He said he had a lot to do during isolation. Kirby immediately responded.
He has limited time. “He’s worked all the way through his sickness, quite frankly Peter. So that’s kind of insulting,” he stated.
HERE’S HOW BIDEN IS SPENDING HIS TIME… GREG PRICE: Biden: “I want to buy oneof those corvettes that are electric vehicles when they come out but I’m not going to be able to do it because I can’t drive a vehicle while I’m Vice President, while I’m President, any more than when I was Vice President. (VIDEO)
HOW NORTH KOREAN IS THIS APOLOGY VIDEO? … ‘I Apologize’: Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney Regrets Not Committing To Biden For 2024, Gushes Over President (VIDEO)
Democratic New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney walked back Thursday her refusal to say whether she would support President Joe Biden should he run for reelection in 2024.
During Tuesday’s debate against Jerry Nadler (Democratic New York Rep.), both Nadler-Maloney declined to endorse Biden.
Maloney said she doesn’t “believe [Biden is] running for reelection.”
Maloney backtracked Thursday while speaking on CNN’s New Day.
I believe we all owe an immense debt of gratitude President Biden,” Maloney stated. He saved our country and ran against Trump. So I think he’s done an incredible job and is giving us a record to run on in the ’22 elections.”
A startling number of lawmakers in President Biden’s own party have been unwilling in recent days to say he should seek re-election in 2024, amid gnawing fears he’ll be too old or unpopular to win.
UPDATE IN ARIZONA… KARI LAKE WINS… Trump-Endorsed Candidate Kari Lake Wins GOP Arizona Gubernatorial Primary
Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake won her state’s primary Thursday in a tight race against opponent Karrin Taylor Robson.
Her victory was postponed due to too close a race. Lake garnered 46.8 percent of the vote, while Taylor Robson narrowly tied her with 44 percent, The New York Times reported Thursday night.
Lake declared victory prematurely Wednesday morning while speaking to a crowd. She claimed that officials had delayed the race because they didn’t want her winning.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney assailed ex-President Donald Trump as a “coward” and a prime threat to the United States in a new campaign ad for his daughter, Rep. Liz Cheney, days before her Republican primary election in Wyoming.
“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who has posed a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” the elder Cheney said in a straight-to-camera ad, which was shared online Thursday afternoon.
“He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him,” said Cheney, 81, who served for eight years as vice president in the George W. Bush administration.
He is a coward. Cheney stated that a real man would not lie to his followers. He lost his election, and he lost heavily. I know it, he knows it, and deep down, I think most Republicans know it.”
COPE… ‘She’s Going To Lose Soundly’: CNN Panel Melts Down Over Trump’s Primary Endorsement Wins, Looming Cheney Loss (VIDEO)
Members of a CNN panel had a meltdown Thursday over the success of candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s Republican primary elections.
I get called a RINO everyday and I am the crazy tea-party guy,” Joe Walsh, a former Republican Representative from Illinois stated. The ad was spot-on. Here’s the thing. Liz Cheney is going to lose in a couple of weeks and she’s going to lose soundly.” […]
“It was only 15 years ago that Cheney was considered the conservative end of the GOP,” CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein said. Right. And now because he ascribes to a vision of conservatism, on strong government and strong national defense as opposed to this sense of grievance about being displaced in a changing and diversifying country, he’s kind of, you know, on the outs in this – in this party.”
WITH ZERO DEATHS IN U.S., MONKEYPOX IS NOW OFFICIALLY AN EMERGENCY… WAPO: Monkeypox is
‘a public health emergency,’ U.S. health secretary declares
WHO officials last week advised men who have sex with men to temporarily reduce their number of sexual partners in an attempt to reduce transmission. While monkeypox is far less dangerous than coronavirus, with only a few deaths worldwide and no in the United States, it can cause fever and rash, which can often lead to scarring and can also leave you with swollen and painful lymph nodes.
LEFTISTS STUGGLE WITH HOW TO TELL GAY MEN TO AVOID ORGYS… ONE HERO IS LIMITING SEX TO ONLY HIS HUSBAND & HIS BOYFRIEND… WAPO: As monkeypox strikes gay men, officials debate warnings to limit partners
As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention weighs whether to recommend limiting sex partners, health officials in San Francisco, Chicago, New York and other U.S. cities battling surgesdisproportionately sickening gay men are avoiding calls for sexual restraint, wary of further stigmatizing same-sex intimacy. […]
Many public health professionals and activists have spent years on the frontlines of HIV/AIDS battle. They know it’s futile to advise people not to have as much sex. This stance is at odds with WHO. A top New York epidemiologist condemned the messaging. Other members of the gay community believe gay men should be warned before the epidemic becomes too severe. “It was devaluing homosexual men’s lives, and health not to advise gay men,” stated Dan Savage (a columnist in sex who has criticised the government response to monkeypox. Now, we’re on the brink of monkeypox becoming endemic in gay community all around the globe. How is that for stigma Savage, a sex columnist who has criticized the public health response to the disease, stated that officials in the department of health should have advised homosexual men to stop engaging in sex at the beginning of May. Experts suspect that the epidemic was fueled by large European festivals that feature a lot of sexual activity.
Savage has decided to follow his instincts and limit sex with his partner and omit San Francisco’s Dore Alley Festival this year.
DOCS SUE GOV’T FOR COVID CENSORSHIP… OUTKICK: DOCTORS, SCIENTISTS SUE GOVERNMENT FOR CENSORING SPEECH DURING COVID PANDEMIC
[S]everal prominent experts are joining the fight against government imposed censorship by signing on to a lawsuit against President Biden and other government figures, which alleges that the administration violated the First Amendment:
“Public statements, emails, and recent publicly released documents establish that the President of the United States and other senior officials in the Biden Administration violated the First Amendment by directing social-media companies to censor viewpoints that conflict with the government’s messaging on Covid-19.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Dr. Martin Kuldorff, Dr. Aaron Kheritay and others in the New Civil Liberties Alliance have all joined the State of Missouri ex rel. Schmitt, et al. v. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., et al. This suit seeks to resolve the alleged unconstitutional collusion.
WASHINGTON, D.C. (7News) — Four people are hospitalized with life-threatening injuries after being struck by lightning in Lafayette Park across from The White House Thursday evening.
7News has learned Friday that two of the people perished: a 76-year-old man and a 75-year-old woman from Wisconsin.
D.C. Fire and EMS officers said that two people were taken to hospital and were being treated. However, they didn’t give any updates on their status during a later press conference.