Are Taiwan’s Independence Worth Fighting for?

When a person knows that he will be hanging in two weeks, it helps him concentrate, according to Dr. Samuel Johnson.

If there’s one thing that the clash between China and America over Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has to offer, it’s this: America must reexamine what we are going to do to fight China in order to protect the Taiwan Strait/South China Sea. China is an advanced nuclear weapons nation that has a larger manufacturing base than us, and has a larger economy than ours. It also boasts a fleet of warships with larger numbers than the U.S. Navy.

An air-naval-and-missile war in the Western Pacific and East Asia would be no cakewalk. China might launch a massive anti-ship missile and hypersonic weapon attack on the U.S. carrier Ronald Reagan currently in the South China Sea. The Reagan carries a crew of thousands of sailors almost as numerous as the U.S. casualty lists from both Pearl Harbor and 9/11, the worst attacks in and on the U.S. outside of such Civil War battles as Gettysburg and Antietam.

What in East Asia and the Western Pacific could justify such losses. Is there a reason to take such risk?

Since President Richard Nixon’s trip to China, and President Jimmy Carter’s abrogation of the mutual defense treaty with the Republic of China on Taiwan in 1979, the U.S. is not obligated to come to the defense of Taiwan against China, which claims that island the size of Maryland as “part of China.”

Our military position has been one that is “strategic uncertainty.”

Our military posture has been one of “strategic ambiguity.” We won’t commit to going to war to protect Taiwan. We also will not take away the option to use war if Taiwan is attacked. What would the U.S. do if it went to war for Taiwan? To prevent the same regime being applied to Taiwan as was done recently in Hong Kong, we would have to risk our security and survival.

If Hong Kong, a city of 7 million, can be transferred to the custody and control of Beijing without resistance from the U.S., why should it be worth a major U.S. war with China to prevent that same fate and future from befalling 23 million Taiwanese?

The retort is immediate. If China is allowed to seize Taiwan, our treaties to defend the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity Japan, South Korea and the Philippines as well as Australia, New Zealand, Australia, and the Philippines become questionable. The belief in America’s commitment to fighting for East Asia and the Western Pacific nations would fade. All of the Asian defence against Communist China may collapse.

If Taiwan was to fall to China, we would see a decline in the U.S. commitments that they make to fighting for allies across Europe and Asia. U.S. credibility would suffer a blow as substantial as the loss of South Vietnam in 1975.

The fall of Saigon was followed, in part, by the defeat of Laos, Cambodia and Iran to communism. This also led to the Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. It saw the strategic transfer to the Soviet bloc of Ethiopia, Angola Mozambique Nicaragua, Grenada, Mozambique and Mozambique. Also, it led to the rise of Euro-communism and its influence on the Old Continent.

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Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and Beijing’s bellicose response should bring up other pertinent questions. What would you be fighting for if this led to a U.S. – China war? What would the definition of victory be? The restoration of the status-quo ante A permanent independence for Taiwan would mean a U.S. permanent war guarantee and a U.S.-Taiwan defence pact. An American nation tired of wars and commitments would accept a commitment to Taiwan defense.

Why would we put our security and peace at risk for Taiwan’s independence and freedom? When we wouldn’t risk our security and peace for Hong Kong’s independence or freedom, we do not. And after our victory in the Taiwan Strait, how would we secure indefinitely the independence of that nation of 23 million from a defeated power of 1.4 billion, bitter and bristling at its loss?

Consider: China, in this 21st century, has grown massively, both militarily and economically, and in both real and relative terms, at the expense of the United States. The USA is not benefiting from China’s four-fold increase in population. What guarantees are there that 2025 or 2030 will not bring a more favorable balance of power for China in what is, after all, their continent, not ours? Contrary to what happened in the Cold War and other Cold Wars, the time does not always favor the United States or its allies. All three nuclear power in East Asia, China, Russia, North Korea, are hostile to the USA.