The Political Crisis of the Republican Party

In the weeks since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats have spent millions of dollars telling voters that the first thing Republicans will do if they take power is to ban every single abortion nationwide–including when the mother’s life is in danger.

In response, the Republican leadership devised their brilliant counter-argument. They will say nothing. When they are cornered federal Republicans will gesture vaguely towards state legislatures, then pivot to a diatribe over gas prices and inflation.

On Tuesday, Kansas voters were asked in a referendum if they would like their state’s abortion policy to be set by the Republican legislature. Even in a state that Trump won by nearly 15 points, the answer was an overwhelming “no.” Unfortunately, Democrats successfully painted Republicans as extremists on the abortion issue, and the voters revolted against the referendum.

Let’s be clear: Kansas is not a unique state. It doesn’t bode well in the GOP’s hope of winning a red-wave in November if Republicans don’t figure out a coherent way to react to the attack from the left.

But, if recent political history has shown anything it’s the Republican establishment’s astonishing ability to examine all evidence and come up with the dumbest conclusion. The Republicans see Kansas’ loss as an affirmation of their strategy, not a repudiation. The Republican leadership is ready to go all-in on the Democrats after they lost an election. You can already see that the Republican consultants class is reverting to the tried and true strategy they have been using: Frame an election around fiscal issues and let the opposition define you on other social issues. Then, blame the pro-lifers for losing.

The incoherence of this plan is obvious from its failure to work. But, it becomes even more apparent when you look at the public polling. All Democrats publicly committed to the most unpopular abortion plan possible, which is legal up to the point of birth. This includes partial-birth for all reasons, and paid for by taxpayers. They can only solve the problem by claiming that the GOP will soon enact the policy that is least popular: a blanket ban on women who treat an ectopic child.

Republicans are happy to follow the lead, even though there is no counterargument. Many voters accept the claims of the left. It’s a Big Lie: even if any GOP congressman wanted to do such a thing (nobody does), and even if Republican voters were unified behind it (they’re not), no such policy could even hope to reach the 60 votes needed in the Senate. According to Democrats themselves, they are only one or two votes away from breaking filibuster in order to pass their extreme agenda.

The good news is that the Big Lie can be disproved easily by Republicans. Simply tell the voters your real plan. The types of restrictions Republicans actually could pass, and do favor–such as a 15-week ban, when the baby can feel pain, with a life of the mother exception–are enormously popular. Even a 6-week ban, once the baby’s heartbeat can be detected, polls above 50 percent.

The Republican party has had a long-standing tradition of looking for a silver lining and then promptly shooting itself in its foot. In the months since Dobbs, Senate Republicans have yet to articulate any of the winning positions they have to choose from–pain-capable or heartbeat. There are many candidates who are willing to speak, but most are choosing to not say anything at all. Democrats are the unopposed party in this field.

When that happens, it is the argument side who wins. This is a clear indication that Democrats will run on the issue to mobilize their base and to turn away swing voters. Republicans are yet to provide a clear answer. Even worse, Republicans don’t seem to believe they have one. This is a huge mistake. It is not going to end on its own. This issue will remain vulnerable unless Republicans present a federal bill that is either heartbeat-capable, or pain-capable, which explicitly protects the mother’s life. If they win the majority, they will be championing it in their elections. Republicans all across America need to pass a bill to be a prolife North Star. This would provide a stark contrast to Democrats’ extreme support for abortion right up until the point of birth.

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Failure to act on this is political suicide. Republicans who are in very winnable elections will lose if they don’t get an answer from the left. They might be able to do it but will the baby? The GOP cannot stop Democrats from getting more seats, enough to end the filibuster. If that happens every state will have to permit dismemberment abortions until birth. More babies will die. The GOP, however, can support the common-sense restrictions that voters favor, which prevent highly-developed infants being killed in their wombs. This will save many lives.

Overturning Roe is just the first step. We are now in the democratic era for the abortion debate. The Republican members of Congress cannot act as if the decision was out of their control. We need to persuade our fellow citizens that saving as many lives is possible as quickly as possible. A large majority of Americans already agree that babies should be protected if they can feel pain. We have an overwhelming majority of Americans who support protecting babies whose heart beats. We will lose if the public discussion is relegated to this crucial moment, if the left portrays us as real extremists, instead of them.

This political crisis is the Republican Party’s. It is obvious that the problem exists. It is clear that there are two options. Are Republican leaders going to do the right thing?