According to Emerson poll data, POLL: Republican Governor Primary tightens as Pence-backed candidate gains ground

Karrin Robson gained ground over her Trump-backed opponent Kari Lake Sunday ahead of Tuesday’s GOP governoral primary.

The latest polling of Republican voters from July 28 – July 30 shows former TV anchor Lake with 46% support, while real estate attorney Robson has 47% support, Emerson poll data showed. For weeks, Lake has averaged a 10-point lead over her rival in the polls, according to RealClear Politics.

The competition between Robson and Lake has intensified in the weeks leading up to the primary, as Robson poured millions in negative ads against Lake into the Arizona airwaves, according to RealClear Politics. Robson attempted to call her opponent “Fake Lake”, after being called into doubt by several people about Lake’s commitment.

Robson Campaign spokesperson Matthew Benson stated to the Daily Caller News Foundation that the campaign is confident going into Tuesday’s primary.

OUTLIER OR NO? Per independent @EmersonPolling:
> #AZGOV GOP primary dead heat between @KariLake & @Karrin4Arizona. Recent polls indicate that Lake is moving away.
>#AZSEN GOP primary responses show @bgmasters pulling away, in line w recent polls.

— Brahm Resnik (@brahmresnik) August 1, 2022

“We know the race is close,” Benson said. The Emerson polls match our internal polling. We are facing an uphill battle against an opponent with mainstream recognition.”

Lake was a registered Democrat from 2006-2012 and supported President Obama during his 2008 election, according to 12News. Lake told 12News she had grown disenchanted with the GOP during the Bush years because of the “endless wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, Lake returned to the Republican party in 2012, and she has portrayed herself as a Trump loyalist since the start of the campaign in 2021, RealClear Politics reported.

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Benson stated that the campaign anticipates strong results with mail-in ballots. These are particularly popular with older voters. The election will be a proxy fight between Trump and Mike Pence (ex-Vice President), RealClear Politics reported. Lake has sought to model her campaign on Trump’s brand of populist fervor, fighting back against the “fake news” media and her “establishment-backed” opponent. Lake did not reply to the DCNF’s request.

The Emerson poll was conducted with a sample size of 600 likely Republican voters and had a margin of error 3.9%.

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