As we reported earlier, the word looks like there’s going to be a negative-1.6 GDP when the numbers come in this week on July 28th. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is the common definition of a recession. The White House is already trying to spin the anticipated results and redefine what a recession is.
‘On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged the real definition of a recession.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: “A common definition of recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth”
“Many economists expect second quarter GDP to be negative. First quarter GDP was negative.” pic.twitter.com/UsKdYCGdEj
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 24, 2022
But even while acknowledging the proper definition and acknowledging that a negative GDP number was likely coming, she tried to spin and claimed that this was “not an economy in recession,” trying to term it just a “slowdown” and a “transition.”
WATCH: “Should all Americans be preparing for a recession?” @chucktodd
Treasury Sec. Yellen: “The economy is slowing down. … This is not an economy that’s in recession.” pic.twitter.com/SyQjIjr1Gu
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) July 24, 2022
“The economy is slowing down,” Yellen said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” adding that a correction is “appropriate” for a healthy economy.
“The labor market is now extremely strong,” she said. “This is not an economy that’s in recession, but we’re in a period of transition in which growth is slowing. And that’s necessary and appropriate, and we need to be growing at a steady and sustainable pace. So there is a slowdown, and businesses can see that and that’s appropriate, given that people now have jobs, and we have a strong labor market.”
“But you don’t see any of the signs now – a recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We just don’t have that,” she added. “I would say that we’re seeing a slowdown.” [….]
“Even if that number is negative, we’re not in a recession now, and we should not be characterizing that as a recession,” she said.
So, the same Biden team that has lied about inflation and gas prices now wants to redefine what a recession is to deny reality. Yellen was wrong about inflation too, calling it “transitory.” It’s been “transitory” for about 13 months now.
Yellen trying to claim it wouldn’t be a recession was even a little too much for “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd. Todd said she was “splitting hairs” and that it met the “technical definition” of recession, but she was trying to claim it wasn’t.
“That’s not the technical definition,” Yellen argued. “There’s an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession, and most of the data that they look at right now continues to be strong. I would be amazed if the NBER would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth. We’ve got a very strong labor market. When you’re creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”
Fox’s Jacqui Heinrich pointed out the problem with that spin, with a little history.
Yellen: There’s an org called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data…I will be would be amazed if the NBER would declare this period to be a recession
FLASHBACK: in ’08, NBER didn’t announce until Dec the recession had begun A YEAR EARLIER
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) July 24, 2022
Yellen wants to take credit for people coming back to work from the pandemic. Unfortunately, the reality of Biden’s economy is now hitting.
Here’s more information Yellen just wants to ignore: Jobless claims are on the rise.
Factoid of the day:
The 4-week average of initial jobless claims is up 60K since mid March.
Historically, increases this big over similar periods have been associated with recessions. Only exception is Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Same message if adjusting by labor force size. pic.twitter.com/KA5Zv4FYez
— Roberto Perli (@R_Perli) July 22, 2022
*U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 251,000 LAST WEEK; EST. 240,000
*U.S. JULY PHILADELPHIA FED FACTORY INDEX AT -12.3; EST. -2.5
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) July 21, 2022
So, Yellen can spin, just as she did with inflation, but all the signs are there and if it comes in negative as expected, it’s going to be hard for the Biden team to argue it away. Unfortunately, this denial of reality is a continual problem of the Biden Administration.