Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to take over Taiwan, but he is learning from the mistakes made by Russia in Ukraine and is preparing for action before taking any actions.
Mr. Burns stated that he wouldn’t underestimate the determination of Mr. Xi to assert Chinese control on Taiwan and warned him not to underestimate military action in the future.
The Chinese leader works to ensure that the People’s Liberation Army is equipped with the necessary capabilities for an invasion of the democratic island, which lies about 100 mi off the Chinese coast.
Mr. Xi has been in power since 2013, and made a Taiwan takeover a priority. This is also the focus of large-scale PLA military buildup.
” “I believe the risks of an invasion become higher, it seems, the further you get into this decade,” said Mr. Burns in remarks Wednesday at the Aspen Security Forum.
” The Chinese leadership wants to learn from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, and the lessons it teaches them,” he stated.
The CIA director is a retired career diplomat who said that the agency’s analysts think it is less about whether or not the Chinese leadership will choose to force Taiwan to their control in the future, but rather how and when. .”
A major lesson that Beijing can learn from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was that it is impossible to win decisive victories using an “underwhelming force .”
Russian military forces sent around 190,000 troops into Ukraine in February expecting the government in Kyiv to fall within a week. However, the Ukrainian military forces responded with fierce resistance.
China’s military and political leaders think that Taiwan needs to be attacked with overwhelming military force in order for it to succeed, he stated.
Since the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the Pentagon has worked closely with Taiwan to strengthen the defense of the island against Chinese military actions.
U.S.-China tensions have been rising over Taiwan in the recent months, as provocative Chinese naval maneuvers and military flights have taken place near the island.
In a gesture of support to Taipei’s guided-missile destroyer Navy, USS Benfold, earlier this week, made the Taiwan Strait crossing after two freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
President Biden has also stated that the United States will intervene militarily to support Taiwan. However, the White House later changed its mind.
Both Australia and Japan have indicated that they will join the U.S.-led defense against Taiwan.
Mr. Burns stated that in addition to the military force, the Chinese must also attack Taiwan “in information space”. They will have to bolster their country before any operations by planning for sanctions economic or other from the outside, Mr. Burns added.
China would also carry out diplomatic operations in order to create wedges that aim at separating the United States and its allies across the Asia-Pacific region, as preparation for an attack.
Mr. Burns stated that he doesn’t believe that Mr. Xi would decide to strike Taiwan before a significant Chinese Communist Party Congress in the fall, which is likely to strengthen the dictatorial hold of China’s leader.
Concerning Chinese support of Russia, Mr. Burns stated that the Chinese had increased their purchases of Russian energy resources. However, Russia does not seem to have major arms sales to China.
Mr. Xi, along with other Chinese leaders, were not satisfied by the Russian military’s beating in Ukraine. Beijing is also concerned about the fact that European countries are closer to the U.S .
China is trying to undermine NATO by providing diplomatic and economic support to numerous European countries.
On Russia Mr. Burns stated that Mr. Putin had reacted negatively to Moscow’s desire to become again a world leader and pointed out that Putin’s “appetite for danger has increased .”
Mr. Burns dismissed reports that Mr. Putin was mentally or physically ill.
” He said that he is quite healthy.