Are Voters Motivated By Abortion? Oder are Democrats just dreaming?

The Democratic Party’s talking points have changed significantly in the wake the Dobbs Supreme Court decision. The Supreme Court’s decision Roe was overturned, and voters have re-elected the question of abortion regulation. Democrats now feel they are losing one of the most important pillars of their faith.

Democrats believe the issue will motivate voters in November’s midterms. Recent polling and Axios reporting , shows that it is fast becoming the most important plank of Democratic candidate platforms. It even surpasses January 6, which many sites consider a crucial issue.

Axios got a first look at websites that Democrats’ House and Senate campaign arms launched Monday — less than 72 hours after the Supreme Court ruling — blasting GOP candidates’ abortion records.

  • Democrats see it as a mobilizing issue for suburban women in swing House districts across the country.
  • The House Democratic (DCCC) site is called “Extreme GOP.”
  • The Senate Democrats’ (DSCC) site is: “This is the GOP on Abortion.”

You also have people like S.E. Cupp, a CNN host, declared that the end to Roe will signal the end for the GOP.

CNN’s @secupp on Dobbs: “It’s hard to imagine the Republican Party surviving this. Between anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ, book banning, anti-democracy….add all of the regressive [BS], garbage…” there’s no future generation. All it is, GOP “shrinking” and condensing.

— Tim Graham (@TimJGraham) June 27, 2022

I don’t know whether it is really so difficult to see the Republican Party making it through this, or if that’s just the way it is. However, there are plenty of data to indicate that it is not possible for the Republican Party to end its existence. For example, just yesterday the Associated Press reported that more than one million voters have switched their party affiliation to the Republican Party.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

This shift is more dangerous to Democrats than it is in suburbs. There, well-educated swing votes who voted against Trump’s Republican Party over the past years are now swinging back. From Denver, Atlanta to Pittsburgh and Cleveland to Cleveland to Cleveland to Atlanta to Pittsburgh to Cleveland in the past year, more suburban residents have switched to the GOP. In counties surrounding medium-sized cities, such as Harrisburg (Pennsylvania), Raleigh, North Carolina, Augusta, Georgia, and Des Moines (Iowa), Republicans have also seen a rise in support.

Although this news is not reaching the Democrats that often, there are indications some Democrats realize they are in just as bad a situation now than they were prior Dobbs .. Via POLITICO:

A year ago, it would have seemed impossible for a GOP Senate win in deep-blue Washington. As Republicans gain national momentum, Democrats now spend millions advertising in once-reliable Democratic strongholds like Washington to push for Senate picks.

A similar panic is occurring in Colorado where the GOP Senate primary on Tuesday has attracted millions in Democratic-funded ads in support of a far-right candidate. This massive last-ditch effort to prevent a moderate Republican from being on the November ballot.

APTOPIX Supreme Court Abortion Pelosi Democrats
AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

In the aftermath of last week’s historic decision, Nancy Pelosi signaled in strong terms that she would push for codification Roe federally. This comes after Chuck Schumer twice brought the most extreme bill on abortion before the Senate. Democrats were forced to admit they support abortion to the extent of the child exiting the birth canal.

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This issue distracts from the real issues that voters should be focusing on. As much as suburban women care about abortion rights, they also have concerns about inflation and crime. These issues will affect the lives of their family and children, and in particular their children. Recent CBS/YouGov polls support this notion.

YouGov poll: Highest and lowest priority for voters. Inflation and economy remain at the top. January 6. remains low, and COVID is really going down the list.

— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) June 27, 2022

The top five issues that voters see as the highest priority are Inflation (82 percent see it as high priority), the economy (80 percent), crime (58 percent), gun policy (57 percent), and immigration (45 percent). Abortion (42 percent) is in sixth place there, but that’s a huge drop from the 80-82 percent high priority stance on inflation and the economy. The issues are more important to people than abortion.

That 42 percent who see abortion as a high-priority issue, by the way, had more than likely already decided how they would vote. The passionate, single-issue voters who are focused only on this issue will likely vote Republican or Democratic. They won’t change their votes before or after .Dobbs.

Keep in mind, however that both the Flash polling and issue polling for the week ahead will be affected by proximity bias. In the next two to three weeks voters will be shifting back to their most urgent issues. Many people won’t vote for abortion, despite media reporting and Democrats’ panic.

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It’s hard to believe that abortion will overtake economic and quality-of-life issues such as crime. These are the issues suburban women will use in November to determine how they vote.

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